Mindscapes for Chapter 8.1 & 8.2 please post original response by Friday 12/3(noon) and classmate responses by Sunday 12/5 (noon). If you need to post a drawing or handwritten work and do not have the capability to scan it as a .jpeg it must be submitted to my mailbox (Basement of AB building) by noon on Thursday and I will post in on Friday:
8.1
1. [ MH] To compute the expected value, we multiply the value of each outcome with its probability of occurring and then add up all those products.
2. [FB]: (1*.5)+(.5+.5)=.75
CV: Oh, okay.
3. [LJ] I came up with $0.75 for the average amount
FB: I came up with close but a little higher at .7666, how did you account for the .8?
4. [TC] I said that there is a 1/2 chance of getting red, a 1/4 chance of getting blue, and a 1/5 chance of green.
LJ: how did you come up with the 1/5 green?
SD: Did you mean 1/4 for green or because the green space is smaller it might be 1/5? (i'm not sure if that matters)
FB: it looks evenly divided to me, 1/2 for red 1/4 for blue and 1/8 for green. So for blue or greed, shouldn't it be higher than 1/4?
5. [SD] I think the answer to this one is a game is called a fair game if the expected value equals zero. That is if the game is played again and again we would expect all players to break even.
6. [CV] The expected value of this bet is that you would be around the same place where you started! If you play many times on a game that is fifty fifty chance, you'll eventually even out I suppose!
7. KK]
8. [ JH]
9. [JL]
8.2
1. [NG]
2. [MH] Two activities that are less risky than one would think: 1. Flying on an airplane 2. Vacationing in Israel.
CV: That's a weird question, but I suppose you're right
3. [FB] .02+280,000,000=5,600,000 people infected
SD: I came up with the same.
CV: I got something different... but I'm wrong! So don't listen to me!
4. [LJ] it would cost 150,000,000 per life saved, and the cost would be prohibitive. When the cost is reduced to $1000.00 per life saved then the price is reduced to $10,000.00 per and would be a better cost savings.
SD:I came up with this also
5. [TC] There is a 93% chance of life expectancy.
SD:How did you come up with that answer?
FB: The reduction in life expectancy from 93% would be 72.54
CV: THis one confuses me, but I think I can get it.
6. [SD]:You'll Mistake 20% of the 90% that are real blondes ad you'll correctly identify 80%of the 10% that are fake. But I don't know where to go from here.
FB: I think its just a judgment based on the chances, it seems like a reasonable relationship to pursue to me.
7. [CV] I think the probability of Chris' hair being fair is around 80%. But that's a guess.
8. [KK]
8.1
1. [ MH] To compute the expected value, we multiply the value of each outcome with its probability of occurring and then add up all those products.
2. [FB]: (1*.5)+(.5+.5)=.75
CV: Oh, okay.
3. [LJ] I came up with $0.75 for the average amount
FB: I came up with close but a little higher at .7666, how did you account for the .8?
4. [TC] I said that there is a 1/2 chance of getting red, a 1/4 chance of getting blue, and a 1/5 chance of green.
LJ: how did you come up with the 1/5 green?
SD: Did you mean 1/4 for green or because the green space is smaller it might be 1/5? (i'm not sure if that matters)
FB: it looks evenly divided to me, 1/2 for red 1/4 for blue and 1/8 for green. So for blue or greed, shouldn't it be higher than 1/4?
5. [SD] I think the answer to this one is a game is called a fair game if the expected value equals zero. That is if the game is played again and again we would expect all players to break even.
6. [CV] The expected value of this bet is that you would be around the same place where you started! If you play many times on a game that is fifty fifty chance, you'll eventually even out I suppose!
7. KK]
8. [ JH]
9. [JL]
8.2
1. [NG]
2. [MH] Two activities that are less risky than one would think: 1. Flying on an airplane 2. Vacationing in Israel.
CV: That's a weird question, but I suppose you're right
3. [FB] .02+280,000,000=5,600,000 people infected
SD: I came up with the same.
CV: I got something different... but I'm wrong! So don't listen to me!
4. [LJ] it would cost 150,000,000 per life saved, and the cost would be prohibitive. When the cost is reduced to $1000.00 per life saved then the price is reduced to $10,000.00 per and would be a better cost savings.
SD:I came up with this also
5. [TC] There is a 93% chance of life expectancy.
SD:How did you come up with that answer?
FB: The reduction in life expectancy from 93% would be 72.54
CV: THis one confuses me, but I think I can get it.
6. [SD]:You'll Mistake 20% of the 90% that are real blondes ad you'll correctly identify 80%of the 10% that are fake. But I don't know where to go from here.
FB: I think its just a judgment based on the chances, it seems like a reasonable relationship to pursue to me.
7. [CV] I think the probability of Chris' hair being fair is around 80%. But that's a guess.
8. [KK]